The exponential distribution models the waiting time until the next event in a process where events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate. This cheat sheet helps students recognize when the model applies, compute probabilities, and interpret the rate parameter. It is especially useful in reliability, queueing, survival analysis, and Poisson process problems.
The main parameter is the rate , which controls how quickly events tend to occur. The density is for , and the cumulative distribution is . The mean is , the variance is , and the distribution has the important memoryless property .
Key Facts
- If , then the probability density function is for and for .
- The cumulative distribution function is for .
- The survival function is for .
- The mean waiting time is , so larger means shorter average waiting time.
- The variance and standard deviation are and .
- The memoryless property is for .
- The median is because .
- If events follow a Poisson process with rate , then the waiting time until the next event follows .
Vocabulary
- Exponential distribution
- A continuous probability distribution used to model waiting time until the next event in a constant-rate process.
- Rate parameter
- The parameter represents the average number of events per unit time and must satisfy .
- Probability density function
- The function describes relative likelihood for possible waiting times .
- Cumulative distribution function
- The function gives the probability that the waiting time is at most .
- Survival function
- The function gives the probability that the waiting time exceeds .
- Memoryless property
- The rule means that the remaining waiting time does not depend on time already waited.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Using the mean as the rate is wrong because is the event rate and , not .
- Forgetting the support is wrong because exponential waiting times cannot be negative, so for .
- Confusing with is wrong because while .
- Mixing time units is wrong because and must use compatible units, such as events per hour with time measured in hours.
- Assuming every waiting-time problem is exponential is wrong because the model requires independent events occurring at a constant average rate.
Practice Questions
- 1 If , find .
- 2 The average lifetime of a component is hours. Assuming an exponential model, find and .
- 3 Calls arrive according to a Poisson process at a rate of calls per hour. Find the probability that the next call arrives within minutes.
- 4 Explain why the memoryless property is reasonable for some electronic components but not for a human lifespan.