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Discrete probability distributions describe random variables that take countable values, such as the number of successes, arrivals, or defective items. This cheat sheet helps students identify common discrete models and use their formulas correctly. It is useful for probability units, statistics courses, exam review, and quick reference during problem solving.

The most important ideas are the probability mass function, the cumulative distribution function, expected value, and variance. Common distributions include Bernoulli, binomial, geometric, Poisson, and hypergeometric models. Choosing the correct distribution depends on whether trials are independent, whether probabilities stay constant, and whether sampling is done with or without replacement.

Key Facts

  • A probability mass function satisfies P(X=x)0P(X=x) \ge 0 for every value xx and xP(X=x)=1\sum_x P(X=x)=1.
  • The cumulative distribution function is F(x)=P(Xx)F(x)=P(X \le x), so for discrete variables P(aXb)=F(b)F(a1)P(a \le X \le b)=F(b)-F(a-1) when values are integers.
  • The expected value of a discrete random variable is E(X)=xxP(X=x)E(X)=\sum_x xP(X=x).
  • The variance is Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2\operatorname{Var}(X)=E\left(X^2\right)-\left[E(X)\right]^2, where E(X2)=xx2P(X=x)E\left(X^2\right)=\sum_x x^2P(X=x).
  • For a Bernoulli random variable with success probability pp, P(X=1)=pP(X=1)=p, P(X=0)=1pP(X=0)=1-p, E(X)=pE(X)=p, and Var(X)=p(1p)\operatorname{Var}(X)=p(1-p).
  • For a binomial random variable XBin(n,p)X \sim \operatorname{Bin}(n,p), P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X=k)=\binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}, E(X)=npE(X)=np, and Var(X)=np(1p)\operatorname{Var}(X)=np(1-p).
  • For a geometric random variable counting trials until the first success, P(X=k)=(1p)k1pP(X=k)=(1-p)^{k-1}p, E(X)=1pE(X)=\frac{1}{p}, and Var(X)=1pp2\operatorname{Var}(X)=\frac{1-p}{p^2}.
  • For a Poisson random variable XPois(λ)X \sim \operatorname{Pois}(\lambda), P(X=k)=eλλkk!P(X=k)=\frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{k!}, E(X)=λE(X)=\lambda, and Var(X)=λ\operatorname{Var}(X)=\lambda.

Vocabulary

Discrete random variable
A random variable whose possible values can be listed, such as 0,1,2,30,1,2,3 or another countable set.
Probability mass function
A function that gives P(X=x)P(X=x) for each possible value xx of a discrete random variable.
Cumulative distribution function
A function defined by F(x)=P(Xx)F(x)=P(X \le x) that gives the probability of being at or below a value.
Expected value
The long-run average value of a random variable, calculated by E(X)=xxP(X=x)E(X)=\sum_x xP(X=x).
Variance
A measure of spread around the mean, calculated by Var(X)=E(X2)[E(X)]2\operatorname{Var}(X)=E\left(X^2\right)-\left[E(X)\right]^2.
Independent trials
Trials are independent when the outcome of one trial does not change the probabilities for the others.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Using the binomial model when probabilities change, which is wrong because XBin(n,p)X \sim \operatorname{Bin}(n,p) requires independent trials with the same success probability pp.
  • Forgetting the combination factor in binomial probability, which is wrong because (nk)\binom{n}{k} counts the different orders in which kk successes can occur.
  • Confusing P(X=k)P(X=k) with P(Xk)P(X \le k), which is wrong because a PMF gives one exact value while a CDF adds probabilities up to that value.
  • Using the geometric formula with the wrong starting point, which is wrong because P(X=k)=(1p)k1pP(X=k)=(1-p)^{k-1}p applies when XX counts the trial number of the first success.
  • Assuming variance equals standard deviation, which is wrong because standard deviation is σ=Var(X)\sigma=\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(X)}.

Practice Questions

  1. 1 A fair coin is flipped 88 times. If XX is the number of heads, find P(X=5)P(X=5).
  2. 2 A call center receives an average of 33 calls per minute. Using a Poisson model, find P(X=0)P(X=0) for one minute.
  3. 3 A quiz has 44 multiple-choice questions with 55 choices each. If a student guesses randomly, find E(X)E(X) for the number of correct answers.
  4. 4 A box contains 66 red marbles and 44 blue marbles, and 33 marbles are drawn without replacement. Explain why a hypergeometric model is more appropriate than a binomial model.