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Survival analysis studies the time until an event occurs, such as failure, relapse, death, graduation, or customer churn. This reference helps students organize the special notation and assumptions used when outcomes are times rather than simple measurements. It is especially useful because many observations are censored, meaning the exact event time is not fully observed.

The cheat sheet connects basic time-to-event quantities with estimation, group comparison, and regression modeling.

Key Facts

  • The survival function is S(t)=P(T>t)S(t)=P(T>t), the probability that the event time TT is greater than time tt.
  • The cumulative distribution function is F(t)=P(Tt)=1S(t)F(t)=P(T\le t)=1-S(t) for an event time TT.
  • The hazard function is h(t)=limΔt0P(tT<t+ΔtTt)Δth(t)=\lim_{\Delta t\to 0}\frac{P(t\le T<t+\Delta t\mid T\ge t)}{\Delta t}, the instantaneous event rate among those still at risk.
  • The cumulative hazard is H(t)=0th(u)duH(t)=\int_0^t h(u)\,du, and it relates to survival by S(t)=eH(t)S(t)=e^{-H(t)}.
  • The Kaplan-Meier estimator is S^(t)=tit(1dini)\hat{S}(t)=\prod_{t_i\le t}\left(1-\frac{d_i}{n_i}\right), where did_i events occur among nin_i subjects at risk at time tit_i.
  • Right censoring occurs when a subject is known to survive beyond a time cc, so the observed data are Y=min(T,c)Y=\min(T,c) and δ=I(Tc)\delta=I(T\le c).
  • The log-rank test compares groups using observed and expected event counts, often summarized by χ2=(O1E1)2V1\chi^2=\frac{(O_1-E_1)^2}{V_1} for two groups.
  • The Cox proportional hazards model is h(tx)=h0(t)eβTxh(t\mid x)=h_0(t)e^{\beta^Tx}, and a one-unit increase in xjx_j multiplies the hazard by eβje^{\beta_j}.

Vocabulary

Event time
The event time TT is the time from a defined starting point until the event of interest occurs.
Censoring
Censoring occurs when the exact event time is unknown but partial information about TT is still available.
Survival function
The survival function S(t)S(t) gives the probability that a subject has not experienced the event by time tt.
Hazard function
The hazard function h(t)h(t) describes the instantaneous risk of the event at time tt among subjects still at risk.
Kaplan-Meier estimator
The Kaplan-Meier estimator S^(t)\hat{S}(t) is a step function estimate of survival that updates only at observed event times.
Hazard ratio
A hazard ratio compares hazards between groups or covariate levels, with HR=eβHR=e^{\beta} in a Cox model.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Treating censored observations as event-free forever is wrong because censoring only tells us the event was not observed before the censoring time.
  • Interpreting S(t)S(t) as the probability that the event has happened by time tt is wrong because S(t)=P(T>t)S(t)=P(T>t) is the probability of surviving past tt.
  • Using ordinary linear regression on survival times is often wrong because censored outcomes violate the assumption that every response value is fully observed.
  • Calling a hazard ratio a probability ratio is wrong because the hazard is an instantaneous event rate, not a direct probability over a fixed interval.
  • Assuming Kaplan-Meier curves drop at censoring times is wrong because censoring reduces the risk set but does not directly create an event.

Practice Questions

  1. 1 At time ti=6t_i=6, there are ni=40n_i=40 subjects at risk and di=4d_i=4 events. If the previous Kaplan-Meier estimate is S^(6)=0.80\hat{S}(6^-)=0.80, compute S^(6)\hat{S}(6).
  2. 2 In a Cox model, a treatment coefficient is β=0.35\beta=-0.35. Compute the hazard ratio HR=eβHR=e^{\beta} and interpret whether the treatment increases or decreases hazard.
  3. 3 Suppose S(12)=0.70S(12)=0.70. What is F(12)F(12), the probability that the event has occurred by time 1212?
  4. 4 Explain why censoring can be included in Kaplan-Meier estimation but should not be treated the same as an observed event.