Survival analysis studies the time until an event occurs, such as failure, relapse, death, graduation, or customer churn. This reference helps students organize the special notation and assumptions used when outcomes are times rather than simple measurements. It is especially useful because many observations are censored, meaning the exact event time is not fully observed.
The cheat sheet connects basic time-to-event quantities with estimation, group comparison, and regression modeling.
Key Facts
- The survival function is , the probability that the event time is greater than time .
- The cumulative distribution function is for an event time .
- The hazard function is , the instantaneous event rate among those still at risk.
- The cumulative hazard is , and it relates to survival by .
- The Kaplan-Meier estimator is , where events occur among subjects at risk at time .
- Right censoring occurs when a subject is known to survive beyond a time , so the observed data are and .
- The log-rank test compares groups using observed and expected event counts, often summarized by for two groups.
- The Cox proportional hazards model is , and a one-unit increase in multiplies the hazard by .
Vocabulary
- Event time
- The event time is the time from a defined starting point until the event of interest occurs.
- Censoring
- Censoring occurs when the exact event time is unknown but partial information about is still available.
- Survival function
- The survival function gives the probability that a subject has not experienced the event by time .
- Hazard function
- The hazard function describes the instantaneous risk of the event at time among subjects still at risk.
- Kaplan-Meier estimator
- The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a step function estimate of survival that updates only at observed event times.
- Hazard ratio
- A hazard ratio compares hazards between groups or covariate levels, with in a Cox model.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Treating censored observations as event-free forever is wrong because censoring only tells us the event was not observed before the censoring time.
- Interpreting as the probability that the event has happened by time is wrong because is the probability of surviving past .
- Using ordinary linear regression on survival times is often wrong because censored outcomes violate the assumption that every response value is fully observed.
- Calling a hazard ratio a probability ratio is wrong because the hazard is an instantaneous event rate, not a direct probability over a fixed interval.
- Assuming Kaplan-Meier curves drop at censoring times is wrong because censoring reduces the risk set but does not directly create an event.
Practice Questions
- 1 At time , there are subjects at risk and events. If the previous Kaplan-Meier estimate is , compute .
- 2 In a Cox model, a treatment coefficient is . Compute the hazard ratio and interpret whether the treatment increases or decreases hazard.
- 3 Suppose . What is , the probability that the event has occurred by time ?
- 4 Explain why censoring can be included in Kaplan-Meier estimation but should not be treated the same as an observed event.