Mock Election and Voter Turnout Lab
Each voter group leans toward a different candidate. Set how many of each group actually turn out to vote, run the election, and watch how turnout decides the winner. Record several runs and compare them to see why getting voters to the polls matters as much as their opinions.
Election Scenarios
Set Voter Turnout by Group
Drag each slider to set what share of that group actually votes. The baseline lean shows how that group splits between the two candidates. Change the turnout, then run the election.
Baseline lean: 62% to Reed, 38% to Vega (favors Reed)
Baseline lean: 48% to Reed, 52% to Vega (favors Vega)
Baseline lean: 38% to Reed, 62% to Vega (favors Vega)
Baseline lean: 35% to Reed, 65% to Vega (favors Vega)
Controls
Current scenario: Town Council Election
Run the election several times with different turnout settings, then compare the rows below to see how turnout changes who wins.
Data Table
(0 rows)| # | Run | Turnout by Group | Overall Turnout % | Votes A | Votes B | Winner |
|---|
Reference Guide
What Voter Turnout Means
Voter turnout is the share of eligible voters who actually cast a ballot. If a town has 10,000 eligible voters and 6,000 vote, turnout is 60 percent.
Being eligible is not the same as voting. Many people who could vote stay home. Turnout is usually higher in major national elections and lower in local and midterm elections.
In this lab you set the turnout rate for each voter group with a slider. The number of votes a group casts equals its eligible voters multiplied by its turnout rate.
How Turnout Swings Results
Each group has a baseline lean, which is how it splits its votes between the two candidates. A group that leans 62 percent toward one candidate gives that candidate more votes when it turns out in larger numbers.
When the groups that favor a candidate vote at high rates and the groups that oppose them stay home, that candidate gains an edge even if overall opinion has not changed.
This is why campaigns spend so much effort on getting out the vote. Persuading undecided voters matters, but so does making sure supporters actually show up.
How to Use the Lab
Pick a scenario, then set every group to the same turnout to see the baseline result. Run the election and note who wins.
- Raise one group. Increase the turnout of a group that favors the losing candidate and run again.
- Lower another. Drop the turnout of a group that favors the leading candidate and compare.
- Watch the margin. Notice how a close race can flip with only a turnout change.
- Record each run. The data table logs your settings and the winner so you can compare runs.
Turnout Patterns in Real Elections
Turnout is not the same across groups. Older voters and people with more years of schooling tend to vote at higher rates than younger voters and first-time voters.
Because groups differ in both size and lean, the same set of opinions can produce different winners depending on who turns out. A larger group with low turnout can be outvoted by a smaller group with high turnout.
Factors that affect turnout include the day of the week, the ease of registration, weather, the level of interest in the race, and whether voters feel their vote will matter.
As you experiment, think about which real groups your scenario groups stand in for and what could raise or lower their turnout.
