Statistics

Confusing Correlation with Causation

A student sees a strong correlation between ice cream sales and drowning deaths and concludes that ice cream causes drowning.

Quick check

Why students make it

A strong association feels like a cause because two variables move together in a predictable way. The misleading intuition ignores lurking variables, reverse causation, and coincidence.

The rule done right

Correlation measures association, not cause and effect. A causal claim needs stronger evidence, such as a well-designed randomized experiment or a convincing causal argument that rules out confounding.

Related resources

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